Map showing the projected path of Hurricane Frances (2004). Notice that the path becomes wider because there is more uncertainty about where the storm will go further in the future. Click on image for full size (57 Kb) Courtesy of NOAA

Each year scientists make predictions about the strength of the upcoming hurricane season. To make seasonal hurricane predictions, scientists look at climate models and climate events that are known to influence hurricane activity such as El Niño and La Niña.  They take into account climate signals that last many decades and the sea surface temperatures, which may impact hurricane strength. While there is always some uncertainty in these predictions, they have become more accurate in recent years and scientists continue to explore how to improve them.

Let’s imagine that a hurricane has formed and it is trundling across the ocean. How do we know where it will go? How do we know where it will hit the coast? The path of a hurricane depends on weather and so can only be estimated after a storm has formed. Meteorologists use powerful weather models that take current weather patterns into account, including the location of high and low pressure areas, to predict the path of a storm.

Scientists also have several ways to keep tabs on these storms to know if they are getting stronger or larger. When a storm is far out to sea, it can be monitored from above with weather satellites. Specially-equipped planes can also be flown into a hurricane to take measurements of pressure, wind, temperature, and other factors. Once it is close to land, Doppler radar is used to monitor the storm. Visual observations from land and measurements made with weather instruments become important as the storm approaches the coast.

Map showing the projected path of Hurricane Frances (2004). Notice that the path becomes wider because there is more uncertainty about where the storm will go further in the future. Click on image for full size (57 Kb) Courtesy of NOAA

How many hurricanes will form this year? How strong will they be? While no one can say for sure, teams of scientists make predictions each year about the strength of the upcoming hurricane season.

To make the predictions, they look at climate models and factors that influence hurricanes. This includes climate events such as El Niño and La Niña as well as climate signals that last for decades. Scientists also look at ocean temperatures as they form their predictions because there’s evidence that warmer waters lead to stronger storms.

Let’s imagine that a hurricane has formed and is trundling across the ocean. How do we know where it will go? How do we know where it will hit the coast? The path of a hurricane depends on weather. Unlike predictions of hurricane season, predicting the path of an individual storm can only be made after the storm has formed. Meteorologists use powerful weather models that take current weather patterns into account, including the location of high and low pressure areas, to predict the path of a storm.

Scientists also keep an eye on hurricanes to know if a storm is getting stronger or larger. When it is far out to sea, scientists watch the storm from above with weather satellites. Specially-equipped planes can also be flown into a hurricane to take measurements of pressure, wind, temperature, and other factors. Once it is close to land, Doppler radar is used to monitor the storm. Visual observations from land and measurements made with weather instruments become important as the storm approaches the coast.

Map showing the projected path of Hurricane Frances (2004). Notice that the path becomes wider because there is more uncertainty about where the storm will go further in the future. Click on image for full size (57 Kb) Courtesy of NOAA

In some years there are many hurricanes. Other years there are only a few. Each year, scientists make predictions about what they think the hurricane season will be like. They can’t say for sure how many hurricanes there will be, but their predictions let people know what to expect.

To make the predictions, they look at how climate is affecting hurricanes that year. For example, climate events such as El Niño can affect the number of hurricanes. Hurricanes are affected by other climate signals that last for decades too. Scientists also examine the temperature of the ocean water because warmer waters may lead to stronger storms.

Once a hurricane forms other scientists make predictions about where the storm will travel. The path of a hurricane depends on weather. Scientists use weather models that track areas of high and low pressure and other weather factors to predict the path of a storm.

Scientists also watch a hurricane to know if it is getting stronger or larger. When it is far out to sea, they watch the storm using satellites. Special planes can also be flown into a hurricane to take measurements. Once it is close to land, Doppler radar and observations are used to monitor the storm.